最新头条！渣打银行预测美联储将于9月开始降息：通胀数据回落，经济韧性强劲

渣打银行预测美联储将于9月开始降息：通胀数据回落，经济韧性强劲

北京，2024年6月14日 - 渣打银行大中华及北亚区兼香港财资市场部联席主管刘孟玑表示，预计美联储将在9月开始降息。他指出，美国通胀数据开始回落，且美国经济展现出强劲韧性，这为美联储降息提供了条件。

刘孟玑分析称，美国5月份核心CPI同比增长5.9%，较前一个月下降0.2个百分点，显示出通胀降温迹象。此外，美国失业率维持在低位，就业市场表现强劲，表明美国经济依然保持着韧性。

他表示，美联储在今年3月、5月两次加息，以遏制高企的通胀。但随着通胀数据回落，以及美联储对经济衰退的担忧加剧，降息预期逐渐升温。

刘孟玑预计，美联储将在今年剩余时间内降息三次，每次降息25个基点。他指出，美联储需要在控制通胀和促进经济增长之间取得平衡，降息步伐将取决于经济数据的变化。

渣打银行的预测与市场普遍预期一致。根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具，市场预计美联储在9月份降息的概率为70.8%。

美联储的降息决定将对全球经济和金融市场产生重大影响。 预计将降低全球借贷成本，提振风险资产价格，但也可能加剧通胀压力。

以下是一些机构对美联储降息的看法：

• **摩根大通：**预计美联储将在今年下半年降息两次，每次降息25个基点。
• **高盛：**预计美联储将在今年下半年降息一次，每次降息25个基点。
• **美银：**预计美联储将在今年下半年降息三次，每次降息25个基点。

美联储的货币政策走向备受关注。 市场将密切关注美联储接下来的会议和声明，以获取更多关于降息的线索。

A Wave of "Kete Valuation" Sweeps Through the Market: 50 Stocks Poised for Strong Growth

Shanghai, China - June 17, 2024 - A recent surge in investor sentiment towards growth stocks, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors, has been dubbed the "Kete Valuation" phenomenon, named after the Chinese pharmaceutical company C-Bridge (6160.HK). This trend is reminiscent of the "CATL Valuation" rally that occurred in 2021, driven by the strong performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300015.SZ).

The "Kete Valuation" is characterized by a sharp increase in the share prices of companies with promising growth prospects, often defying broader market trends. This is evident in the recent performance of 50 stocks identified by analysts as having significant growth potential. These stocks, spanning various industries including healthcare, technology, and consumer goods, have exhibited remarkable resilience amidst recent market volatility.

Factors Driving the "Kete Valuation"

Several factors are contributing to the "Kete Valuation" trend. Firstly, investors are increasingly seeking out companies that can deliver sustainable growth, particularly in the face of global economic uncertainties. Secondly, the easing of monetary policy in major economies is providing a supportive backdrop for riskier assets like growth stocks. Additionally, advancements in technology and innovation are creating new opportunities for companies in various sectors, fueling investor optimism.

Key Beneficiaries of the "Kete Valuation"

Among the 50 stocks identified as potential beneficiaries of the "Kete Valuation," C-Bridge (6160.HK) stands out as a frontrunner. The company's innovative cancer therapies and strong pipeline of new drugs have attracted significant investor interest. Other notable stocks include:

• Ascletis Pharma (1672.HK): A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapies for cancer and viral diseases.

• Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.SZ): A leading provider of comprehensive eye care services in China.

• Xiaomi Corporation (1810.HK): A global technology company known for its smartphones, smart home devices, and internet services.

Investment Implications

The "Kete Valuation" presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on the growth potential of select companies. However, careful due diligence is crucial, as not all growth stocks are created equal. Investors should thoroughly evaluate a company's financial health, competitive landscape, and long-term growth prospects before making investment decisions.

The "Kete Valuation" highlights the evolving dynamics of the Chinese stock market, where investors are increasingly discerning and seeking out companies with genuine growth potential. This trend is likely to continue as China's economy transitions towards a more innovation-driven and knowledge-based model.